NOAA Releases their 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook – Calling for a Near Average Season

Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) released their pre-season outlook for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Their forecast calls for 9-15 named storms (including Andrea, which dissipated on Tuesday), 4-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. Each of the mean values of these ranges are equal to the average numbers an Atlantic hurricane season produces. They state that there is a 40% chance of the season being near normal, but to account for the ranges given for each of the categories due to unpredictability, there is also a 30% chance of an above average or below average season.

A graphic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms.
NOAA’s forecast graphic for the upcoming hurricane season.

This forecast follows along the general thinking within the weather community, as some factors, such as the state of the ENSO and the SSTAs within the tropical Atlantic, have been changing more drastically than initially anticipated. All of these factors will be discussed in a future article coming late next week, as the official start to the hurricane season is next Saturday.

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